Sodium carbonate/ Soda ash light & dense

Sodium carbonate/ Soda ash light & dense

(I) Production and inventory

1. Work rate: this week's Sodium carbonate/ Soda ash light & dense work rate is 86.80%, -0.53%.

2. Production: Sodium carbonate/ Soda ash light & dense production was 723.6 thousand tons this week, 

   decreased by 0.44 million tons, down 0.60%. The output of light alkali is 298.1 thousand tons, down 0.52 

   million tons compared with the same period of last year. The output of heavy alkali was 425.5 thousand tons, increased by 0.08 million tons.

3. Enterprise inventory: As of July 18, 2024, the total inventory of domestic Sodium carbonate/ Soda ash light & dense 

    manufacturers was 899.5 thousand tons, down 0.41 million tons, or 0.45% compared with last Thursday. Among them, 

    Sodium carbonate/ Soda ash light & dense 50.64 million tons, down 27.6 million tons; heavy Sodium carbonate/ Soda ash light & dense 393.1 million tons, up 23.5 million tons.

Keywords: production decrease.

(II) Market situation

1. Domestic trade price of light soda ash: the mainstream ex-factory price is RMB 2050-2150/ton.

2. Heavy alkali domestic trade price: mainstream ex-factory price of 2200-2350 yuan/ton.

3. Light and heavy alkali foreign trade price: some manufacturers in the market quoted USD265-290/MT for light and heavy alkali.

(C) maintenance information

1, China Salt Red Square July 26, maintenance for about 10 days. (Daily output of 1500 tons)

2、Tianjin alkali plant is planned to stop for maintenance at the end of July and restart around August 26th. (Daily output of 2400 tons)

3、Xuzhou Fengcheng stopped for maintenance for 18 days on August 10 (daily output of 1800 tons)

4, China Salt Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry, August 5, maintenance for a week (daily output of 1,050 tons)

5, Jiangxi Jinghao in August, maintenance for about 10 days (daily output of 1,800 tons)

6, Debonair in August, maintenance for about 7 days (daily output of 1800 tons)

7、Wucai Chemical in late August, maintenance for 10 days (daily output of 3300 tons)

8、Gansu Jinchang in August, overhaul 20 days (daily output of 600 tons)

9, Shuanghuan in early September maintenance 20 days (daily output of 3300 tons)

10、Shandong Haitian maintenance half a month in September (daily output of 3300 tons).

(D) Brief analysis

Supply Forecast: individual enterprises gradually resume overhaul, no new overhaul plan, the overall supply is expected to 

show an increasing trend in the next week, is expected to produce 75+ million tons, start about 90%. Recently, the new order 

signing is general, the previous order is mainly, the current enterprise order to the end of the month or the beginning of the month.

Demand forecast: Sodium carbonate/ Soda ash light & dense demand performance is weak, purchasing sentiment is not active, 

high inventory consumption inventory, low inventory on demand. Downstream business status quo weak, financial pressure, 

raw materials overall inventory is not high, individual high, inventory intention is not enough. Downstream consumption fluctuations 

are small, biased stability, the end of the month or the beginning of the month to replenish inventory expectations. The downstream 

market is expected to weaken, the mood of the performance is low. With the fall in spot prices, exports are expected to improve. 

During the week, the float daily melting capacity of 173,300 tons, stable, PV 113,600 tons, down 700 tons. This week, the point of 

two float production line, a total of 1500 tons, next week, production line stability, photovoltaic next week, cold repair is expected, specific to be determined.

Summary: In summary, the short-term Sodium carbonate/ Soda ash light & dense shock operation, narrow fluctuations.